Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on wildfires in northeast China (1774 to 2010)

Category: Time:
Wednesday, October 12, 2016 - 12:00 to 13:00
Access:
public
Room: Speaker:
Qichao Yao
Affiliation:
PhD Student at the School of Northeast Forestry University, China
Contact:
Ramzi Touchan and Dave Meko
Identification of effects that global climate teleconnection patterns, such as El NiƱo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have on regional wildfires is difficult because of short and incomplete records in many areas of the world. We developed the first multi-century wildfire chronologies for China from fire-scarred trees. Wildfires were common from the 1700s to 1949, when national-level fire suppression policies were implemented. Regional wildfires occurred predominately during drought years, which were consistently and significantly associated with positive ENSO and PDO and negative NAO phases. A total of 34% of variance in annual drought frequency across eastern China since 1925 can be related to these oscillations. Regional droughts and wildfires across China may be predictable based on contingent states of Pacific and Atlantic teleconnections, but future wildfires may be more severe due to effects of climate change and the legacy of fire suppression since 1977.