February 2020

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

Over the past two decades much of western North America experienced persistent drought with little to no respite. Consequences were widespread, including declines in river flow and reservoir storage, over-extraction of ground water, explosion of forest-fire activity, and massive bark beetle outbreaks. Water-balance calculations make clear that 2000–2018 was easily the driest 19-year period in the past century. To what degree if at all is human-caused climate change responsible and what is the future trajectory of water supply in western North America?