Ecological studies of semi-arid forests have had a strong influence on my research in eastern US temperate, mesic forests. Findings on the synchronicity of tree growth, forest dynamics, and climate in these muddier forests have pushed us to reconsider the theory of forest development. The potential for discerning synchrony in these forests, if it exists at all, is likely muddied due to climate, species diversity, and a greater forest density. The continually-surprising challenge is the crossdating of ecological collections in temperate, mesic forests. While crossdating thresholds are crucial for identifying durable signals of past climate, more than ten years of ecological research has us thinking that conventional crossdating approaches likely need some additional thought, discussion, and, maybe, reimagining. I will share how we have attempted to solve this challenge by holding loosely to the concept of a good tree-ring chronology, but not letting go to the principles of crossdating. We are not letting go because crossdating seems to be one of the more important ways to understand the rather ecological lives of trees and the testing of ecological theory in temperate, mesic forests.
Inspired by tree-ring analysis, we are currently tweaking methods with the intent to make better tests of ecological synchrony. Similar to crossdating, early tree-ring methods for ecological studies have served us well. At the same time, some of these earlier methods might have also lent some credence to prevailing theory. We have spent much time tweaking approaches to test for ecological synchrony in temperate mesic forests using our new dataset from >30 old-growth forests across the Northeastern US. As a first test, we are focusing our efforts on a subset of forests within the Adirondacks State Park, the largest park in the CONUS. Our initial and very preliminary results indicate there might be a need to refine ecological theory in these muddier forests. However, there are a lot of if’s to traverse and tests to make before we can make a more solid statement on ecological theory.