Bannister 110

We apply the tipping point toolbox [1-8] to study transitions and bifurcations in various geophysical datasets. We study early warning and detection signals of the records using methodology that combines degenerate fingerprinting and potential analysis techniques for anticipation, detection and forecast of tipping points in a dynamical system. Degenerate fingerprinting indicator is a dynamically derived lag-1 autocorrelation, ACF (or, alternatively, short-range scaling exponent of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA [1]), which shows short-term memory in a series.

Arin Haverland and Randall Smith will host AED150 Students for a hands on course and tour.

Arin Haverland and Randall Smith will host AED150 Students for a hands on course and tour. This class will be using the MP room for an introductory activty and then doing activties throughout the lab.

Water balance models were first applied indirectly by tree-ring researchers in reconstructions of Palmer Drought Severity Index in the mid-1970s. Recent years have seen more direct and explicit use of water-balance models. This talk explores how a simple monthly water-balance model can be applied to diagnose possible causes of large errors in reconstructions of streamflow.